# NVDQ Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, NVDQ missed minus two times NVIDIA's daily return by 10.8 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## NVDQ daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, NVDQ missed minus two times NVIDIA's daily return by 10.8 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 13 of 22 days, from Oct 16, 2026 | NAV | 4.4 | +1.5 | 0.83% | +4.3 (5 days) | −0.2 (8 days) | +4.5 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 16.5 | +0.8 | 3.33% | +15.4 (7 days) | −6.0 (15 days) | +21.3 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 10.8 | −0.1 | 2.37% | +2.7 (28 days) | −2.3 (35 days) | +5.0 | Not significant (t 1.3) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 12.9 | +0.3 | 2.99% | +2.1 (58 days) | −1.1 (66 days) | +3.2 | Not significant (t 0.9) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 11.7 | +0.7 | 2.63% | +1.9 (125 days) | −0.6 (126 days) | +2.4 | Not significant (t 1.2) |

### NVDQ's largest daily misses

The 5 days NVDQ strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | NVIDIA moved | Target | NVDQ returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jun 26, 2026 | closing price | −1.64% | +3.28% | +4.26% | +0.98 pts |
| 2 | Mar 20, 2026 | closing price | −3.28% | +6.56% | +5.96% | −0.60 pts |
| 3 | Jun 18, 2026 | closing price | +2.95% | −5.90% | −5.30% | +0.60 pts |
| 4 | Jun 29, 2026 | closing price | +1.27% | −2.53% | −3.08% | −0.55 pts |
| 5 | Mar 23, 2026 | closing price | +1.70% | −3.40% | −2.87% | +0.54 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is NVDQ's return each day less minus two times NVIDIA's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 13 of the 63 sessions. NVDQ ranks 10 of 75 2x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether NVIDIA rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for NVDQ is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

---

Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, NVDQ daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/nvdq/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/nvdq/tracking/