# NVD Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, NVD missed minus two times NVDA's daily return by 17.5 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## NVD daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, NVD missed minus two times NVDA's daily return by 17.5 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 11 of 22 days, from Oct 16, 2026 | NAV | 3.6 | +3.2 | 0.41% | +3.8 (4 days) | +2.9 (7 days) | +0.9 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 20.0 | +2.9 | 3.89% | +3.6 (7 days) | +2.5 (15 days) | +1.2 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 12 of 63 days, from Sep 11, 2026 | NAV | 3.7 | +3.4 | 0.40% | +3.8 (4 days) | +3.2 (8 days) | +0.6 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 17.5 | +2.8 | 3.63% | +4.2 (28 days) | +1.7 (35 days) | +2.5 | Not significant (t 0.4) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 17.2 | +3.2 | 3.70% | +2.3 (58 days) | +4.0 (66 days) | −1.6 | Not significant (t −0.4) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 14.1 | +3.0 | 3.01% | +2.5 (125 days) | +3.4 (126 days) | −0.9 | Not significant (t −0.4) |

### NVD's largest daily misses

The 5 days NVD strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | NVDA moved | Target | NVD returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jun 26, 2026 | closing price | −1.64% | +3.28% | +4.23% | +0.95 pts |
| 2 | Jun 29, 2026 | closing price | +1.27% | −2.53% | −3.17% | −0.64 pts |
| 3 | Oct 1, 2026 | closing price | +1.09% | −2.17% | −2.75% | −0.58 pts |
| 4 | Aug 28, 2026 | closing price | −4.57% | +9.15% | +8.58% | −0.57 pts |
| 5 | Aug 27, 2026 | closing price | +8.74% | −17.48% | −16.93% | +0.55 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is NVD's return each day less minus two times NVDA's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 12 of the 63 sessions. NVD ranks 35 of 75 2x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether NVDA rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for NVD is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, NVD daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/nvd/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/nvd/tracking/