# NAIL Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, NAIL missed its daily target by 16.4 basis points a day on average. No fund is recommended.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## NAIL daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, NAIL missed three times Homebuilders & Supplies's daily return by 16.4 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 17 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV | 4.3 | −2.9 | 0.74% | −1.4 (8 days) | −4.3 (9 days) | +2.9 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 14.5 | −2.3 | 2.73% | −4.7 (11 days) | +0.1 (11 days) | −4.9 | Not significant (t −0.7) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 16.4 | −4.4 | 3.24% | −12.1 (29 days) | +2.3 (34 days) | −14.4 | Significant (t −3.0) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 18.9 | −5.3 | 4.20% | −13.9 (60 days) | +2.7 (64 days) | −16.6 | Significant (t −3.6) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 18.2 | −4.7 | 3.83% | −8.6 (114 days) | −1.4 (137 days) | −7.2 | Significant (t −2.3) |

### NAIL's largest daily misses

The 5 days NAIL strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | Homebuilders & Supplies moved | Target | NAIL returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jun 30, 2026 | closing price | +0.49% | +1.47% | −0.12% | −1.59 pts |
| 2 | Jun 18, 2026 | closing price | +3.61% | +10.84% | +10.06% | −0.78 pts |
| 3 | Nov 24, 2025 | closing price | −0.52% | −1.55% | −2.11% | −0.55 pts |
| 4 | Jun 9, 2026 | closing price | +4.02% | +12.06% | +11.51% | −0.55 pts |
| 5 | Aug 7, 2026 | closing price | +2.71% | +8.13% | +7.60% | −0.54 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is NAIL's return each day less three times Homebuilders & Supplies's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 17 of the 63 sessions. NAIL ranks 23 of 31 3x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether Homebuilders & Supplies rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Homebuilders & Supplies is itself an ETF, so its own fee and tracking are inside the miss. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for NAIL is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, NAIL daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/nail/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/nail/tracking/