# MUD Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MUD missed minus one times MU's daily return by 11.2 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## MUD daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MUD missed minus one times MU's daily return by 11.2 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 19 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 4.5 | +2.8 | 0.76% | +3.3 (8 days) | +2.4 (11 days) | +0.9 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 8.4 | +3.0 | 1.51% | +4.5 (9 days) | +2.0 (13 days) | +2.5 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 11.2 | +2.8 | 2.59% | +5.2 (32 days) | +0.3 (31 days) | +5.0 | Not significant (t 1.2) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 11.4 | +2.8 | 2.75% | +3.3 (63 days) | +2.4 (61 days) | +0.8 | Not significant (t 0.3) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 11.7 | +2.8 | 2.61% | +3.9 (132 days) | +1.5 (119 days) | +2.4 | Not significant (t 1.1) |

### MUD's largest daily misses

The 5 days MUD strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | MU moved | Target | MUD returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jun 26, 2026 | closing price | −6.69% | +6.69% | +7.51% | +0.82 pts |
| 2 | Aug 28, 2026 | closing price | −0.27% | +0.27% | −0.37% | −0.64 pts |
| 3 | Jun 29, 2026 | closing price | +1.14% | −1.14% | −1.70% | −0.55 pts |
| 4 | Aug 27, 2026 | closing price | −0.32% | +0.32% | +0.84% | +0.52 pts |
| 5 | Feb 4, 2026 | closing price | −9.55% | +9.55% | +10.03% | +0.48 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is MUD's return each day less minus one times MU's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 19 of the 63 sessions. MUD ranks 32 of 34 1x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether MU rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for MUD is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

---

Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, MUD daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/mud/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/mud/tracking/