# MSTZ Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MSTZ missed minus two times MSTR's daily return by 24.3 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## MSTZ daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MSTZ missed minus two times MSTR's daily return by 24.3 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 13 of 22 days, from Oct 16, 2026 | NAV | 11.4 | −1.1 | 2.33% | −3.9 (7 days) | +2.1 (6 days) | −6.1 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 21.6 | −0.2 | 4.09% | +8.6 (11 days) | −9.1 (11 days) | +17.7 | Not significant (t 1.7) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 24.3 | −1.6 | 4.90% | +11.4 (29 days) | −12.8 (34 days) | +24.2 | Significant (t 3.4) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 24.6 | −1.8 | 5.01% | +9.7 (53 days) | −10.1 (70 days) | +19.8 | Significant (t 3.7) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 22.0 | −2.0 | 4.68% | +5.9 (111 days) | −8.2 (139 days) | +14.1 | Significant (t 3.9) |

### MSTZ's largest daily misses

The 5 days MSTZ strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | MSTR moved | Target | MSTZ returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Feb 9, 2026 | closing price | +2.60% | −5.20% | −6.38% | −1.17 pts |
| 2 | Jun 29, 2026 | closing price | +12.60% | −25.20% | −26.05% | −0.85 pts |
| 3 | Dec 17, 2025 | closing price | −4.25% | +8.50% | +7.67% | −0.83 pts |
| 4 | Sep 1, 2026 | closing price | −6.06% | +12.13% | +11.34% | −0.79 pts |
| 5 | Jan 7, 2026 | closing price | +2.44% | −4.89% | −4.11% | +0.78 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is MSTZ's return each day less minus two times MSTR's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 13 of the 63 sessions. MSTZ ranks 50 of 75 2x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether MSTR rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for MSTZ is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, MSTZ daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/mstz/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/mstz/tracking/