# MSTP Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MSTP missed two times MSTR's daily return by 33.9 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## MSTP daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MSTP missed two times MSTR's daily return by 33.9 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 11 of 22 days, from Oct 16, 2026 | NAV | 7.5 | −7.5 | 0.65% | −6.2 (6 days) | −9.0 (5 days) | +2.8 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 28.8 | −7.3 | 5.41% | −13.6 (11 days) | −1.0 (11 days) | −12.6 | Not significant (t −0.9) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 12 of 63 days, from Sep 11, 2026 | NAV | 8.5 | −8.5 | 0.82% | −8.1 (7 days) | −9.0 (5 days) | +0.9 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 33.9 | −9.2 | 6.48% | −20.0 (29 days) | +0.1 (34 days) | −20.0 | Not significant (t −2.0) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 33.2 | −8.7 | 6.49% | −20.7 (53 days) | −0.1 (70 days) | −20.6 | Significant (t −2.8) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 35.1 | −8.8 | 7.34% | −15.7 (111 days) | −3.6 (139 days) | −12.1 | Significant (t −2.0) |

### MSTP's largest daily misses

The 5 days MSTP strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | MSTR moved | Target | MSTP returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Nov 7, 2025 | closing price | +1.99% | +3.99% | +1.81% | −2.18 pts |
| 2 | Jul 17, 2026 | closing price | +0.87% | +1.74% | +0.38% | −1.37 pts |
| 3 | Jan 21, 2026 | closing price | +2.23% | +4.47% | +3.11% | −1.36 pts |
| 4 | Nov 6, 2025 | closing price | −6.98% | −13.96% | −12.63% | +1.33 pts |
| 5 | Dec 19, 2025 | closing price | +4.16% | +8.32% | +7.03% | −1.29 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is MSTP's return each day less two times MSTR's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 12 of the 63 sessions. MSTP ranks 321 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether MSTR rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for MSTP is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, MSTP daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/mstp/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/mstp/tracking/