# MSFX Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MSFX missed two times MICROSOFT's daily return by 16.0 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## MSFX daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MSFX missed two times MICROSOFT's daily return by 16.0 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 13 of 22 days, from Oct 16, 2026 | NAV | 5.2 | −5.1 | 0.66% | −4.3 (5 days) | −5.6 (8 days) | +1.3 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 15.9 | −5.4 | 3.61% | −4.5 (12 days) | −6.5 (10 days) | +2.0 | Not significant (t 0.2) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 16.0 | −4.2 | 3.51% | −5.5 (34 days) | −2.6 (29 days) | −2.9 | Not significant (t −0.5) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 22.6 | −4.8 | 5.79% | −10.3 (65 days) | +1.3 (59 days) | −11.7 | Not significant (t −1.8) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 19.1 | −5.6 | 4.98% | −8.1 (125 days) | −3.1 (126 days) | −5.0 | Not significant (t −1.2) |

### MSFX's largest daily misses

The 5 days MSFX strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | MICROSOFT moved | Target | MSFX returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Dec 23, 2025 | closing price | +0.40% | +0.80% | −1.40% | −2.20 pts |
| 2 | Aug 5, 2026 | closing price | −1.09% | −2.17% | −0.16% | +2.01 pts |
| 3 | Aug 4, 2026 | closing price | +1.06% | +2.12% | +0.79% | −1.33 pts |
| 4 | Jul 30, 2026 | closing price | +15.51% | +31.01% | +29.72% | −1.29 pts |
| 5 | May 29, 2026 | closing price | +5.45% | +10.89% | +9.97% | −0.92 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is MSFX's return each day less two times MICROSOFT's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 13 of the 63 sessions. MSFX ranks 102 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether MICROSOFT rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for MSFX is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, MSFX daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/msfx/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/msfx/tracking/