# MSFL Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MSFL missed two times MSFT's daily return by 10.9 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## MSFL daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MSFL missed two times MSFT's daily return by 10.9 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 11 of 22 days, from Oct 16, 2026 | NAV | 5.8 | −5.8 | 0.61% | −2.8 (3 days) | −7.0 (8 days) | +4.3 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 12.4 | −5.2 | 2.28% | −5.7 (12 days) | −4.6 (10 days) | −1.2 | Not significant (t −0.2) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 12 of 63 days, from Sep 11, 2026 | NAV | 6.0 | −6.0 | 0.58% | −4.0 (4 days) | −7.0 (8 days) | +3.0 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 10.9 | −4.6 | 2.19% | −4.2 (34 days) | −5.1 (29 days) | +0.9 | Not significant (t 0.2) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 13.5 | −4.5 | 3.03% | −5.9 (65 days) | −3.0 (59 days) | −2.9 | Not significant (t −0.8) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 12.8 | −3.9 | 2.74% | −5.2 (125 days) | −2.6 (126 days) | −2.6 | Not significant (t −1.2) |

### MSFL's largest daily misses

The 5 days MSFL strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | MSFT moved | Target | MSFL returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jul 30, 2026 | closing price | +15.51% | +31.01% | +30.14% | −0.88 pts |
| 2 | Jun 26, 2026 | closing price | +5.71% | +11.42% | +10.66% | −0.76 pts |
| 3 | Jul 29, 2026 | closing price | −0.71% | −1.43% | −0.74% | +0.69 pts |
| 4 | Sep 18, 2026 | closing price | −0.80% | −1.60% | −2.12% | −0.53 pts |
| 5 | Jun 29, 2026 | closing price | −1.18% | −2.36% | −1.91% | +0.45 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is MSFL's return each day less two times MSFT's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 12 of the 63 sessions. MSFL ranks 39 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether MSFT rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for MSFL is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, MSFL daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/msfl/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/msfl/tracking/