# MRNX Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MRNX missed two times MRNA's daily return by 31.7 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## MRNX daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MRNX missed two times MRNA's daily return by 31.7 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 20 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 12.0 | −12.0 | 0.97% | −11.2 (13 days) | −13.5 (7 days) | +2.4 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 34.0 | −14.2 | 7.00% | −17.0 (14 days) | −9.3 (8 days) | −7.8 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 31.7 | −14.2 | 6.70% | −18.3 (36 days) | −8.9 (27 days) | −9.4 | Not significant (t −0.9) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 38.7 | −11.7 | 10.19% | −16.3 (66 days) | −6.4 (58 days) | −9.9 | Not significant (t −0.9) |

### MRNX's largest daily misses

The 5 days MRNX strayed furthest from its daily target in the 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | MRNA moved | Target | MRNX returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jun 17, 2026 | closing price | +11.55% | +23.10% | +18.97% | −4.14 pts |
| 2 | Jun 16, 2026 | closing price | +6.27% | +12.55% | +15.53% | +2.99 pts |
| 3 | Jun 3, 2026 | closing price | +7.49% | +14.99% | +12.84% | −2.15 pts |
| 4 | Aug 19, 2026 | closing price | +176.97% | +353.94% | +352.09% | −1.85 pts |
| 5 | Jun 23, 2026 | closing price | +2.79% | +5.58% | +4.57% | −1.01 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is MRNX's return each day less two times MRNA's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 20 of the 63 sessions. MRNX ranks 299 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether MRNA rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for MRNX is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, MRNX daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/mrnx/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/mrnx/tracking/