# MRAL Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MRAL missed two times MARA's daily return by 48.3 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## MRAL daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, MRAL missed two times MARA's daily return by 48.3 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 11 of 22 days, from Oct 16, 2026 | NAV | 6.5 | −6.5 | 0.65% | −5.0 (5 days) | −7.7 (6 days) | +2.7 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 50.9 | −1.8 | 9.94% | +6.0 (6 days) | −4.7 (16 days) | +10.7 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 12 of 63 days, from Sep 11, 2026 | NAV | 7.3 | −7.3 | 0.78% | −7.0 (6 days) | −7.7 (6 days) | +0.7 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 48.3 | −7.4 | 9.96% | −23.3 (24 days) | +2.4 (39 days) | −25.7 | Not significant (t −1.6) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 47.4 | −7.0 | 9.70% | −17.4 (51 days) | +0.5 (72 days) | −17.8 | Not significant (t −1.6) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 45.3 | −7.7 | 9.21% | −25.0 (105 days) | +4.8 (145 days) | −29.7 | Significant (t −4.0) |

### MRAL's largest daily misses

The 5 days MRAL strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | MARA moved | Target | MRAL returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jan 21, 2026 | closing price | +1.83% | +3.66% | +1.68% | −1.98 pts |
| 2 | Aug 26, 2026 | closing price | −5.16% | −10.31% | −8.57% | +1.74 pts |
| 3 | Aug 27, 2026 | closing price | +5.79% | +11.59% | +9.90% | −1.68 pts |
| 4 | Jun 11, 2026 | closing price | +7.84% | +15.69% | +14.07% | −1.62 pts |
| 5 | Jan 20, 2026 | closing price | −8.71% | −17.43% | −16.08% | +1.35 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is MRAL's return each day less two times MARA's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 12 of the 63 sessions. MRAL ranks 429 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether MARA rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for MRAL is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, MRAL daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/mral/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/mral/tracking/