# LUNL Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, LUNL missed two times LUNR's daily return by 39.4 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## LUNL daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, LUNL missed two times LUNR's daily return by 39.4 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 18 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 17.9 | −10.7 | 3.95% | +7.8 (6 days) | −19.9 (12 days) | +27.7 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 48.1 | −15.6 | 8.52% | +8.9 (8 days) | −29.6 (14 days) | +38.5 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 39.4 | −16.5 | 7.21% | −23.7 (24 days) | −11.9 (38 days) | −11.8 | Not significant (t −0.9) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 43.1 | −17.7 | 9.34% | −24.2 (49 days) | −13.4 (74 days) | −10.8 | Not significant (t −1.0) |

### LUNL's largest daily misses

The 5 days LUNL strayed furthest from its daily target in the 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | LUNR moved | Target | LUNL returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jun 15, 2026 | closing price | −3.23% | −6.46% | −10.05% | −3.59 pts |
| 2 | Jun 12, 2026 | closing price | −13.12% | −26.24% | −23.88% | +2.36 pts |
| 3 | Jun 30, 2026 | closing price | +2.00% | +4.01% | +2.96% | −1.05 pts |
| 4 | Aug 13, 2026 | closing price | +3.60% | +7.20% | +6.15% | −1.05 pts |
| 5 | Sep 24, 2026 | closing price | +3.02% | +6.04% | +5.05% | −0.98 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is LUNL's return each day less two times LUNR's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 18 of the 63 sessions. LUNL ranks 366 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether LUNR rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. 2 NAV days were held out, where the NAV and the closing price disagreed about the day: Oct 16, 2026, Oct 28, 2026. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for LUNL is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

---

Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, LUNL daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/lunl/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/lunl/tracking/