# ETHD Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, ETHD missed minus two times Ether's daily return by 13.3 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## ETHD daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, ETHD missed minus two times Ether's daily return by 13.3 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 21 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 14.1 | +1.2 | 3.15% | −6.4 (11 days) | +9.5 (10 days) | −15.9 | Not significant (t −1.9) |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 17.6 | +0.8 | 3.61% | −0.1 (11 days) | +1.7 (11 days) | −1.7 | Not significant (t −0.2) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 61 of 63 days, from Aug 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 13.3 | +1.3 | 2.78% | −5.3 (33 days) | +9.1 (28 days) | −14.3 | Significant (t −3.4) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price | 20.4 | +2.0 | 4.58% | −3.4 (34 days) | +8.3 (29 days) | −11.6 | Not significant (t −1.6) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026: 122 of 124 days, from May 11, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 17.6 | +1.6 | 3.58% | −6.2 (60 days) | +9.1 (62 days) | −15.3 | Significant (t −4.0) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price | 20.8 | +1.4 | 4.43% | +0.1 (61 days) | +2.6 (63 days) | −2.5 | Not significant (t −0.5) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026: 247 of 251 days, from Nov 5, 2025 | NAV (stated) | 16.3 | +2.9 | 3.60% | −3.9 (119 days) | +9.3 (128 days) | −13.1 | Significant (t −4.7) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price | 18.8 | +2.0 | 4.11% | +0.6 (121 days) | +3.3 (130 days) | −2.7 | Not significant (t −0.8) |

### ETHD's largest daily misses

The 5 days ETHD strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | Ether moved | Target | ETHD returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Nov 28, 2025 | NAV | +1.08% | −2.15% | −0.43% | +1.72 pts |
| 2 | Dec 1, 2025 | closing price | −9.79% | +19.59% | +18.81% | −0.78 pts |
| 3 | Jul 2, 2026 | NAV | +5.09% | −10.17% | −10.95% | −0.78 pts |
| 4 | Feb 6, 2026 | NAV | +10.06% | −20.12% | −20.71% | −0.59 pts |
| 5 | Jun 26, 2026 | NAV | +1.00% | −1.99% | −2.55% | −0.56 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is ETHD's return each day less minus two times Ether's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. ETHD ranks 43 of 75 2x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether Ether rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for ETHD is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, ETHD daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/ethd/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/ethd/tracking/