# COTG Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, COTG missed two times COST's daily return by 12.8 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## COTG daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, COTG missed two times COST's daily return by 12.8 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 20 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 4.8 | −4.2 | 0.74% | −6.1 (12 days) | −1.5 (8 days) | −4.5 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 15.6 | −2.8 | 3.24% | +6.6 (14 days) | −19.3 (8 days) | +25.9 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 22 of 63 days, from Sep 10, 2026 | NAV | 4.9 | −4.4 | 0.76% | −6.5 (13 days) | −1.4 (9 days) | −5.1 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 12.8 | −4.1 | 2.57% | −0.3 (34 days) | −8.6 (29 days) | +8.3 | Significant (t 2.0) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 14.0 | −4.2 | 3.01% | −1.7 (62 days) | −6.7 (62 days) | +5.0 | Not significant (t 1.5) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 20.5 | −4.2 | 6.78% | −6.5 (124 days) | −2.1 (127 days) | −4.4 | Not significant (t −0.8) |

### COTG's largest daily misses

The 5 days COTG strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | COST moved | Target | COTG returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Nov 25, 2025 | closing price | +0.93% | +1.85% | −1.64% | −3.49 pts |
| 2 | Nov 24, 2025 | closing price | −1.43% | −2.87% | +0.49% | +3.36 pts |
| 3 | Dec 11, 2025 | closing price | +1.15% | +2.30% | +0.23% | −2.07 pts |
| 4 | Feb 5, 2026 | closing price | +1.12% | +2.24% | +3.97% | +1.74 pts |
| 5 | Feb 6, 2026 | closing price | +1.20% | +2.40% | +0.85% | −1.55 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is COTG's return each day less two times COST's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 22 of the 63 sessions. COTG ranks 51 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether COST rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for COTG is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, COTG daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/cotg/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/cotg/tracking/