# COIA Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, COIA missed two times COIN's daily return by 7.6 basis points a day on average, on its NAV. No fund is recommended.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## COIA daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, COIA missed two times COIN's daily return by 7.6 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 21 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 8.2 | −7.3 | 1.38% | −6.2 (10 days) | −8.3 (11 days) | +2.1 | Not significant (t 0.5) |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 15.7 | −6.5 | 3.10% | −13.3 (10 days) | −0.9 (12 days) | −12.5 | Not significant (t −1.5) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 61 of 63 days, from Aug 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 7.6 | −7.3 | 1.02% | −7.1 (29 days) | −7.5 (32 days) | +0.4 | Not significant (t 0.3) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price | 17.4 | −7.3 | 3.20% | −11.3 (30 days) | −3.5 (33 days) | −7.8 | Not significant (t −1.6) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026: 120 of 124 days, from May 11, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 7.6 | −7.4 | 1.00% | −7.4 (54 days) | −7.4 (66 days) | 0.0 | Not significant (t 0.0) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price | 20.3 | −7.7 | 4.09% | −12.8 (56 days) | −3.5 (68 days) | −9.3 | Not significant (t −2.0) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026: 247 of 251 days, from Nov 5, 2025 | NAV (stated) | 8.2 | −8.2 | 1.07% | −8.8 (109 days) | −7.7 (138 days) | −1.1 | Not significant (t −1.2) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price | 21.6 | −8.0 | 4.32% | −8.7 (111 days) | −7.5 (140 days) | −1.2 | Not significant (t −0.3) |

### COIA's largest daily misses

The 5 days COIA strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | COIN moved | Target | COIA returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Feb 6, 2026 | NAV | +13.00% | +26.01% | +25.62% | −0.39 pts |
| 2 | Feb 13, 2026 | NAV | +16.46% | +32.93% | +32.56% | −0.37 pts |
| 3 | Oct 6, 2026 | closing price | −1.32% | −2.64% | −2.29% | +0.34 pts |
| 4 | Jun 8, 2026 | closing price | +6.37% | +12.74% | +12.43% | −0.31 pts |
| 5 | Oct 9, 2026 | NAV | +4.30% | +8.59% | +8.29% | −0.30 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is COIA's return each day less two times COIN's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. COIA ranks 122 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether COIN rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for COIA is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, COIA daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/coia/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/coia/tracking/