# BTCU Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, BTCU missed two times Bitcoin's daily return by 18.9 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## BTCU daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, BTCU missed two times Bitcoin's daily return by 18.9 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 17 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV | 12.4 | −6.7 | 2.49% | −3.1 (7 days) | −9.3 (10 days) | +6.2 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 17.1 | −4.3 | 3.46% | +2.5 (11 days) | −11.0 (11 days) | +13.6 | Not significant (t 1.5) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 18.9 | −4.1 | 3.91% | +5.5 (31 days) | −13.5 (32 days) | +19.0 | Significant (t 3.3) |

### BTCU's largest daily misses

The 5 days BTCU strayed furthest from its daily target in the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | Bitcoin moved | Target | BTCU returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Sep 15, 2026 | closing price | −3.62% | −7.24% | −8.02% | −0.78 pts |
| 2 | Sep 3, 2026 | closing price | +5.76% | +11.52% | +12.13% | +0.62 pts |
| 3 | Sep 16, 2026 | closing price | −0.17% | −0.33% | +0.19% | +0.53 pts |
| 4 | Oct 30, 2026 | NAV | −4.95% | −9.90% | −10.35% | −0.44 pts |
| 5 | Sep 4, 2026 | closing price | −2.40% | −4.80% | −5.19% | −0.39 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is BTCU's return each day less two times Bitcoin's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 17 of the 63 sessions. BTCU ranks 150 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether Bitcoin rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for BTCU is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, BTCU daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/btcu/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/btcu/tracking/