# BTCL Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, BTCL missed two times BITCOIN's daily return by 19.9 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## BTCL daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, BTCL missed two times BITCOIN's daily return by 19.9 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 13 of 22 days, from Oct 16, 2026 | NAV | 12.9 | −6.1 | 2.82% | +0.1 (6 days) | −11.4 (7 days) | +11.5 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 18.0 | −7.0 | 3.33% | −5.0 (11 days) | −8.9 (11 days) | +3.8 | Not significant (t 0.4) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 19.9 | −6.1 | 4.00% | −4.6 (31 days) | −7.5 (32 days) | +2.9 | Not significant (t 0.5) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 19.2 | −6.3 | 3.78% | −6.6 (59 days) | −6.1 (65 days) | −0.5 | Not significant (t −0.1) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 19.8 | −7.0 | 4.10% | −5.5 (119 days) | −8.4 (132 days) | +3.0 | Not significant (t 0.9) |

### BTCL's largest daily misses

The 5 days BTCL strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | BITCOIN moved | Target | BTCL returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Nov 28, 2025 | closing price | +1.52% | +3.04% | +1.45% | −1.59 pts |
| 2 | Dec 1, 2025 | closing price | −6.26% | −12.51% | −11.44% | +1.07 pts |
| 3 | Sep 15, 2026 | closing price | −3.62% | −7.24% | −8.09% | −0.85 pts |
| 4 | Sep 16, 2026 | closing price | −0.17% | −0.33% | +0.42% | +0.75 pts |
| 5 | Dec 19, 2025 | closing price | +4.12% | +8.24% | +7.50% | −0.74 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is BTCL's return each day less two times BITCOIN's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 13 of the 63 sessions. BTCL ranks 172 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether BITCOIN rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for BTCL is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, BTCL daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/btcl/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/btcl/tracking/