# BITX Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, BITX missed two times Bitcoin Strategy's daily return by 9.5 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## BITX daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, BITX missed two times Bitcoin Strategy's daily return by 9.5 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 9.2 | −4.1 | 1.74% | −2.5 (11 days) | −5.8 (11 days) | +3.4 | Not significant (t 0.7) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 9.5 | −4.7 | 1.72% | −1.6 (31 days) | −7.8 (32 days) | +6.2 | Significant (t 2.4) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 10.6 | −4.6 | 2.01% | −3.1 (59 days) | −5.9 (65 days) | +2.8 | Not significant (t 1.2) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 11.9 | −5.0 | 2.77% | −4.9 (119 days) | −5.0 (132 days) | +0.2 | Not significant (t 0.1) |

### BITX's largest daily misses

The 5 days BITX strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | Bitcoin Strategy moved | Target | BITX returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Nov 28, 2025 | closing price | +1.52% | +3.04% | +1.77% | −1.26 pts |
| 2 | Dec 1, 2025 | closing price | −6.26% | −12.51% | −11.44% | +1.07 pts |
| 3 | Feb 6, 2026 | closing price | +9.96% | +19.93% | +19.25% | −0.68 pts |
| 4 | Dec 24, 2025 | closing price | −0.14% | −0.29% | −0.93% | −0.64 pts |
| 5 | Dec 26, 2025 | closing price | 0.00% | 0.00% | +0.54% | +0.54 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is BITX's return each day less two times Bitcoin Strategy's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because its NAV or its target's is not struck at the 4:00 p.m. close. BITX ranks 25 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether Bitcoin Strategy rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for BITX is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, BITX daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/bitx/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/bitx/tracking/