# BITI Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, BITI missed minus one times Bitcoin's daily return by 5.6 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## BITI daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, BITI missed minus one times Bitcoin's daily return by 5.6 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 21 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 5.1 | +2.3 | 1.00% | +0.1 (11 days) | +4.7 (10 days) | −4.7 | Not significant (t −1.8) |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 7.2 | +2.1 | 1.44% | −0.2 (11 days) | +4.4 (11 days) | −4.7 | Not significant (t −1.2) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 61 of 63 days, from Aug 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 5.6 | +2.9 | 1.01% | +0.7 (30 days) | +5.0 (31 days) | −4.4 | Significant (t −2.9) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price | 7.4 | +2.7 | 1.43% | +1.4 (31 days) | +3.9 (32 days) | −2.4 | Not significant (t −1.1) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026: 122 of 124 days, from May 11, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 5.9 | +2.7 | 1.14% | +1.8 (58 days) | +3.6 (64 days) | −1.8 | Not significant (t −1.4) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price | 7.7 | +2.8 | 1.47% | +2.1 (59 days) | +3.4 (65 days) | −1.3 | Not significant (t −0.8) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026: 249 of 251 days, from Nov 5, 2025 | NAV (stated) | 6.8 | +2.8 | 1.54% | +1.8 (118 days) | +3.6 (131 days) | −1.9 | Not significant (t −1.5) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price | 7.6 | +2.7 | 1.59% | +2.2 (119 days) | +3.2 (132 days) | −1.0 | Not significant (t −0.8) |

### BITI's largest daily misses

The 5 days BITI strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | Bitcoin moved | Target | BITI returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Nov 28, 2025 | NAV | +1.52% | −1.52% | −0.78% | +0.74 pts |
| 2 | Dec 1, 2025 | NAV | −6.26% | +6.26% | +5.83% | −0.43 pts |
| 3 | Dec 19, 2025 | NAV | +4.12% | −4.12% | −3.81% | +0.31 pts |
| 4 | Dec 24, 2025 | NAV | −0.14% | +0.14% | +0.46% | +0.31 pts |
| 5 | Jun 8, 2026 | NAV | +5.17% | −5.17% | −4.89% | +0.27 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is BITI's return each day less minus one times Bitcoin's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. BITI ranks 15 of 34 1x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether Bitcoin rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for BITI is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, BITI daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/biti/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/biti/tracking/