# ARMG Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, ARMG missed two times ARM's daily return by 18.5 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## ARMG daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, ARMG missed two times ARM's daily return by 18.5 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 18.3 | −4.3 | 3.95% | −5.2 (9 days) | −3.7 (13 days) | −1.5 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 18.5 | −6.0 | 3.75% | −9.0 (34 days) | −2.6 (29 days) | −6.4 | Not significant (t −1.1) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 17.6 | −6.2 | 3.59% | −4.6 (63 days) | −7.8 (61 days) | +3.2 | Not significant (t 0.8) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 16.8 | −5.7 | 3.47% | −6.3 (126 days) | −5.0 (125 days) | −1.4 | Not significant (t −0.5) |

### ARMG's largest daily misses

The 5 days ARMG strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | ARM moved | Target | ARMG returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Feb 5, 2026 | closing price | +5.70% | +11.40% | +10.31% | −1.09 pts |
| 2 | Nov 28, 2025 | closing price | +2.22% | +4.45% | +3.68% | −0.77 pts |
| 3 | Aug 11, 2026 | closing price | +0.40% | +0.81% | +0.10% | −0.71 pts |
| 4 | Jun 12, 2026 | closing price | +11.27% | +22.55% | +21.91% | −0.64 pts |
| 5 | Oct 20, 2026 | closing price | −3.07% | −6.13% | −6.77% | −0.64 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is ARMG's return each day less two times ARM's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because its NAV or its target's is not struck at the 4:00 p.m. close. ARMG ranks 145 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether ARM rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for ARMG is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

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A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, ARMG daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/armg/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/armg/tracking/