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Hypothetical."},"signals":{"asOf":"2026-11-03","states":[{"ticker":"GSG","state":"in","rank":1,"value":0.161476,"distance":0.161476,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"GSG: +16.1% versus its 12-month average, ranked 1 of 12: held"},{"ticker":"SPY","state":"in","rank":2,"value":0.047396,"distance":0.047396,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"SPY: +4.7% versus its 12-month average, ranked 2 of 12: held"},{"ticker":"EWJ","state":"in","rank":3,"value":0.031772,"distance":0.031772,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"EWJ: +3.2% versus its 12-month average, ranked 3 of 12: held"},{"ticker":"IWM","state":"in","rank":4,"value":0.027213,"distance":0.027213,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"IWM: +2.7% versus its 12-month average, ranked 4 of 12: held"},{"ticker":"QQQ","state":"in","rank":5,"value":0.025487,"distance":0.025487,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"QQQ: +2.5% versus its 12-month average, ranked 5 of 12: held"},{"ticker":"IYR","state":"in","rank":6,"value":0.02454,"distance":0.02454,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"IYR: +2.5% versus its 12-month average, ranked 6 of 12: held"},{"ticker":"VGK","state":"out","rank":7,"value":0.014763,"distance":0.014763,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"VGK: +1.5% versus its 12-month average, ranked 7 of 12: not held"},{"ticker":"HYG","state":"out","rank":8,"value":-0.003798,"distance":0.003798,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"HYG: \u22120.4% versus its 12-month average, ranked 8 of 12: not held"},{"ticker":"EEM","state":"out","rank":9,"value":-0.014113,"distance":0.014113,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"EEM: \u22121.4% versus its 12-month average, ranked 9 of 12: not held"},{"ticker":"LQD","state":"out","rank":10,"value":-0.015993,"distance":0.015993,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"LQD: \u22121.6% versus its 12-month average, ranked 10 of 12: not held"},{"ticker":"TLT","state":"out","rank":11,"value":-0.02333,"distance":0.02333,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"TLT: \u22122.3% versus its 12-month average, ranked 11 of 12: not held"},{"ticker":"GLD","state":"out","rank":12,"value":-0.106691,"distance":0.106691,"distanceUnit":"price distance to its average (the flip of its up/down mark)","text":"GLD: \u221210.7% versus its 12-month average, ranked 12 of 12: not held"},{"ticker":"IEF","state":"in","value":0.833333,"distance":null,"distanceUnit":"share of the book in the safe asset","text":"7 of 12 assets are above their 12-month average, so 83% of the book is in IEF"}],"rejected":[],"lastDecision":{"signalDate":"2026-10-30","reasons":{"GSG":"ranked 1 of 12 on momentum (+24.5% above its 12-month average); 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The 30-day median spread from site/data/trading-cost.json where ETFIQ has one for the fund, else the default for its class. Fund expense ratios are already inside each fund's total return, so no fee is charged twice. Simulated 2x days charge the fund's expense ratio daily.","halfSpreadBpsByFund":{"EEM":3.0,"EWJ":4.0,"GLD":4.0,"GSG":4.0,"HYG":0.5,"IEF":0.5,"IWM":1.0,"IYR":3.0,"LQD":0.5,"QQQ":1.0,"SPY":1.0,"TLT":0.5,"VGK":0.6},"turnoverPerYear":2.565,"costDragPerYear":0.00074,"totalCostPct":1.2882,"grossAnnualised":0.07189,"netAnnualised":0.07114,"taxDragPerYear":null,"taxDragNote":"Not measured: ETFIQ has no lot-level or investor-level tax data. A strategy that trades monthly realises short-term gains."},"skepticInputs":{"paperDays":0,"backtestYears":18.42,"simulatedShare":0.0,"costDragPerYear":0.00074,"turnoverPerYear":2.565,"parameters":5,"largestHoldingPct":83.268,"holdingsCount":7,"survivorshipRisk":false},"moves":{"signalDate":"2026-10-30","effective":"2026-10-31","moves":[{"ticker":"EEM","text":"out of EEM: 2.8% to 0.0%."},{"ticker":"VGK","text":"into VGK: 0.0% to 2.8%. ranked 6 of 12 on momentum (+2.4% above its 12-month average); 17% of the book is at risk."}]},"secondSource":{"method":"independent rebuild: no code shared with the Model Hub engine or the scorecard (QuantStats is not installed in this environment)","agree":true,"checks":[{"name":"allocations well formed","count":222},{"name":"signal dates are month-end closes","count":222,"bad":0},{"name":"independent rebuild of the net series","days":4636,"worstRelativeGap":4.904873827094036e-07,"tolerance":2e-06,"date":"2008-07-03"},{"name":"total return","published":2.546416,"fromPublishedSeries":2.5464166204964007,"independentRebuild":2.5464160589072153,"gap":1.7496432802577289e-07,"tolerance":2e-06},{"name":"deepest fall","published":-0.204435,"fromPublishedSeries":-0.20262718884216338,"independentRebuild":-0.20443539320232426,"gap":3.932023242558813e-07,"tolerance":2e-06},{"name":"rules replayed on the cache","allocations":222,"differing":0},{"name":"benchmark AOR against the cache","differing":0},{"name":"prices: our total return against the vendor's adjusted close","days":84144,"mismatches":0,"tolerance":0.005}],"findings":[],"asOf":"2026-11-03"}}