# ETFIQ Tactical, from 40% stocks benchmark

> ETFIQ Tactical, from 40% stocks holds 40% VT and 60% BND and AGG. Its returns by window and by year, risk and cost, as of Oct 7, 2026.

Data as of Oct 7, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

Rebuilt every trading night. Figures as of Oct 7, 2026; trailing windows end at the last month end, Sep 30, 2026.

## ETFIQ Tactical, from 40% stocks benchmark

A benchmark for tactical and dynamic models in the moderately conservative band: 40% VT and 60% US bonds (BND and AGG in equal parts), reset to each new allocation’s weights, 192 of them since Nov 1, 2010, one each month at the close of the trading day after its month-end test. Each sleeve is held only while its trend test passes; otherwise its weight is in BIL. A yardstick, not a recommendation.

+7.17% Total return, 1 year

+4.99% Total return a year, 10 years

Over 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, ETFIQ Tactical, from 40% stocks, had a total return of +4.99% a year, hypothetical.

Launched on Oct 3, 2026, when ETFIQ froze its rule. Figures before Oct 5, 2026 are hypothetical: today’s rule and funds applied to earlier prices, which is look-ahead. From Oct 5, 2026 the record is tracked, and a window that starts before it is hypothetical as a whole.

### Total return by calendar year

- 2011: +1.66% total return, hypothetical

- 2012: +1.36% total return, hypothetical

- 2013: +7.82% total return, hypothetical

- 2014: +3.99% total return, hypothetical

- 2015: −4.48% total return, hypothetical

- 2016: +3.68% total return, hypothetical

- 2017: +10.69% total return, hypothetical

- 2018: −1.20% total return, hypothetical

- 2019: +7.91% total return, hypothetical

- 2020: +11.56% total return, hypothetical

- 2021: +4.84% total return, hypothetical

- 2022: −3.33% total return, hypothetical

- 2023: +0.56% total return, hypothetical

- 2024: +6.35% total return, hypothetical

- 2025: +10.46% total return, hypothetical

- 2026 to Oct 7, 2026: +5.78% total return, hypothetical

### Other tactical benchmarks

### The rule

The rule: 40% VT and 60% US bonds (BND and AGG in equal parts), reset to each new allocation’s weights, 192 of them since Nov 1, 2010, one each month at the close of the trading day after its month-end test. The tactical family’s rule, as the method states it: “Start from S(x). At each month end, each sleeve is tested on its own total-return index (built from the same daily returns the engine uses): if that index is at or above its average over the last 10 month ends, the sleeve is held; otherwise it moves to BIL until a later month end passes the test.” Methodology version 1.3; launched on Oct 3, 2026, when ETFIQ froze the family’s rule. Every weight follows from the rule and public facts; the funds are chosen by the rules in the method .

The test on Sep 30, 2026: Global stocks (VT) at 554.40 against its 10-month average of 528.78, held; US bonds (BND and AGG) at 144.55 against its 10-month average of 148.64, not held, so its 60% went to BIL. The weights changed at the close of Oct 1, 2026.

### What it holds

The weights the rule sets at each rebalance, in force since Oct 1, 2026. Each fund’s expense ratio is from its prospectus, as of Oct 24, 2025 and Feb 27, 2026.

| Ticker | Fund | Sleeve | Weight | Expense ratio |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BIL | SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | T-bills | 60% | 0.14% |
| VT | Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF | Global stocks | 40% | 0.06% |

Weighted expense ratio 0.11%, each weight times its fund’s expense ratio. It is already inside the returns below.

### The latest test, Sep 30, 2026

Each sleeve’s total-return index against its average over the last 10 month ends, this one included; a sleeve below it goes to BIL. The weights changed at the close of Oct 1, 2026.

| Sleeve | Funds | Index | 10-month average | Index against its average | Result | Index base, 100 on |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Global stocks | VT | 554.40 | 528.78 | +4.85% | Held | Jan 29, 2010 |
| US bonds | BND and AGG | 144.55 | 148.64 | −2.76% | Not held: 60% to BIL | Jan 29, 2010 |

### Total return by window

Trailing windows end at the last month end; the window since the start runs to the last close. A year is the annualised rate over whole months. Data sourced by Tiingo .

| Window | From | To | Total return | A year | Basis | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 year | Sep 30, 2025 | Sep 30, 2026 | +7.17% | +7.17% | Hypothetical | |
| 3 years | Sep 29, 2023 | Sep 30, 2026 | +27.73% | +8.50% | Hypothetical | |
| 5 years | Sep 30, 2021 | Sep 30, 2026 | +23.47% | +4.31% | Hypothetical | |
| 10 years | Sep 30, 2016 | Sep 30, 2026 | +62.79% | +4.99% | Hypothetical | |
| Since Nov 1, 2010 | Nov 1, 2010 | Oct 7, 2026 | +92.68% | +4.29% | Hypothetical | A year over whole months, Nov 30, 2010 to Sep 30, 2026 |

### Total return by calendar year

Each year from the last close of one December to the next; the current year runs to the last close. Data sourced by Tiingo .

| Year | Total return | Basis | Why not published |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026 to Oct 7, 2026 | +5.78% | Hypothetical | |
| 2025 | +10.46% | Hypothetical | |
| 2024 | +6.35% | Hypothetical | |
| 2023 | +0.56% | Hypothetical | |
| 2022 | −3.33% | Hypothetical | |
| 2021 | +4.84% | Hypothetical | |
| 2020 | +11.56% | Hypothetical | |
| 2019 | +7.91% | Hypothetical | |
| 2018 | −1.20% | Hypothetical | |
| 2017 | +10.69% | Hypothetical | |
| 2016 | +3.68% | Hypothetical | |
| 2015 | −4.48% | Hypothetical | |
| 2014 | +3.99% | Hypothetical | |
| 2013 | +7.82% | Hypothetical | |
| 2012 | +1.36% | Hypothetical | |
| 2011 | +1.66% | Hypothetical | |
| 2010 | not published | not published | the history starts 2010-11-01, after the last close of December 2009 |

### Risk, cost and turnover

Volatility and the Sharpe ratio need 36 monthly returns; a figure with fewer is not published and says why. Data sourced by Tiingo .

| Figure | Value | Dates | Basis | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Volatility, since the start | 4.69% | Nov 30, 2010 to Sep 30, 2026 | Hypothetical | |
| Volatility, 10 years | 5.08% | Sep 30, 2016 to Sep 30, 2026 | Hypothetical | |
| Volatility, 5 years | 5.69% | Sep 30, 2021 to Sep 30, 2026 | Hypothetical | |
| Volatility, 3 years | 5.90% | Sep 29, 2023 to Sep 30, 2026 | Hypothetical | |
| Maximum drawdown, since the start | −8.51% | Nov 1, 2010 to Oct 7, 2026 | Hypothetical | from a peak on Nov 9, 2021 to a low on Mar 15, 2023; back at the peak on Jul 3, 2024 |
| Maximum drawdown, 1 year | −5.05% | Sep 30, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026 | Hypothetical | from a peak on Feb 25, 2026 to a low on Mar 27, 2026; back at the peak on Apr 17, 2026 |
| Sharpe ratio, since the start | 0.58 | Nov 30, 2010 to Sep 30, 2026 | Hypothetical | return over the Treasury 13-week bill rate, per unit of volatility, monthly |
| Sharpe ratio, 10 years | 0.49 | Sep 30, 2016 to Sep 30, 2026 | Hypothetical | return over the Treasury 13-week bill rate, per unit of volatility, monthly |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 0.09 | Sep 30, 2021 to Sep 30, 2026 | Hypothetical | return over the Treasury 13-week bill rate, per unit of volatility, monthly |
| Turnover, since the start | 170.20% a year | Nov 30, 2010 to Sep 30, 2026 | Hypothetical | the share of the benchmark its rebalances traded, a year |
| Factor loadings, since the start | Mkt-RF 0.21; SMB 0.00; HML −0.07; RMW −0.03; CMA 0.11; Mom 0.01 | Nov 30, 2010 to Aug 31, 2026 | Hypothetical | monthly excess return on the six factors, by least squares; each factor on its own row below |
| Factor loading, market (Mkt-RF), since the start | 0.21 | Nov 30, 2010 to Aug 31, 2026 | Hypothetical | t statistic 10.26 |
| Factor loading, size (SMB), since the start | 0.00 | Nov 30, 2010 to Aug 31, 2026 | Hypothetical | t statistic 0.00 |
| Factor loading, value (HML), since the start | −0.07 | Nov 30, 2010 to Aug 31, 2026 | Hypothetical | t statistic −2.05 |
| Factor loading, profitability (RMW), since the start | −0.03 | Nov 30, 2010 to Aug 31, 2026 | Hypothetical | t statistic −0.89 |
| Factor loading, investment (CMA), since the start | 0.11 | Nov 30, 2010 to Aug 31, 2026 | Hypothetical | t statistic 2.17 |
| Factor loading, momentum (Mom), since the start | 0.01 | Nov 30, 2010 to Aug 31, 2026 | Hypothetical | t statistic 0.53 |
| Level, from 100 at the start | 192.68 | Nov 1, 2010 to Oct 7, 2026 | Hypothetical | the benchmark’s value on Oct 7, 2026, from a base of 100 on Nov 1, 2010 |
| Weighted expense ratio | 0.11% | Oct 7, 2026 | Tracked | each weight times its fund’s expense ratio; already inside the returns |

### Questions people ask

What is ETFIQ Tactical, from 40% stocks? A rules-based benchmark: 40% VT and 60% US bonds (BND and AGG in equal parts), reset to each new allocation’s weights, 192 of them since Nov 1, 2010, one each month at the close of the trading day after its month-end test. ETFIQ publishes it to measure tactical and dynamic models with about 40% in stocks. It is not a fund and cannot be bought. Is ETFIQ Tactical, from 40% stocks a recommendation? No. It is a yardstick, the same for everyone, and every weight follows from a written rule and public facts. ETFIQ publishes no trades for it and takes no payment from the issuer of any fund it holds. Why are some of its returns hypothetical? ETFIQ froze the rule on Oct 3, 2026. Returns before Oct 5, 2026 apply today’s rule and funds to earlier prices, which is look-ahead; returns from that date are tracked. The price source does not carry funds that closed before 2016, so nothing here is free of survivorship bias. Total returns are market price with distributions reinvested, net of each fund’s own fees, with nothing else deducted. The price source does not carry funds that closed before 2016, so nothing here is free of survivorship bias. Data sourced by Tiingo .

### Where these figures came from

### Where to next

ETFIQ is an independent publisher of exchange-traded fund data. It is not a fund issuer, broker-dealer or investment adviser, takes no payment from issuers, and makes no recommendations.

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, ETFIQ Tactical, from 40% stocks benchmark, data as of Oct 7, 2026. https://etfiq.com/benchmarks/tactical-40/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Figures ETFIQ computes are free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/benchmarks/tactical-40/