# Fund risks

> Learn three risks that come from the fund itself, not the market: tracking misses, premium spikes and closures, with real BITX, JEDI and VERS data.

Data as of Nov 10, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

## Fund risks: tracking misses, premium spikes, closures

Data as of Nov 10, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

Over the 3 months to Nov 10, 2026 , BITX returned 25.9% against 29.8% for 2 times bitcoin's daily moves, a 3.9 -point miss .

Risk and Execution · Lesson 4 of 4 1 2 3 4

Slide the amount to see the tracking gap in dollars. Your order (hypothetical) $10,000 On $10,000: 2x each day, compounded $2,977, BITX $2,587. Hypothetical amounts.

### The question

I checked the market risk. What can go wrong with the fund itself?

### The idea

- Some risks come from the wrapper, not what it holds: - Tracking miss. The fund doesn't deliver what it promises: an index, or a multiple of daily moves. ETFIQ's Promise check marks each fund Delivered , Partly or Missed , with its gap in points.

- Premium or discount spike. On a given day the price can sit well away from NAV (the basket's worth divided by the number of shares; see Premium and discount ). Sell on a discount day and you get less than the basket is worth.

- Closure. The issuer can close the fund. Holders get a date to sell by, or are paid out in cash. You don't choose the date.

- Each is measured over its own dates.

### Worked example

Risk 1: a tracking miss (BITX, 3 months, Aug 11, 2026 to Nov 10, 2026 ). BITX aims for 2 times bitcoin's daily move.

| | Return |
| --- | --- |
| Bitcoin | +16.10% |
| 2x each day, compounded | +29.77% |
| BITX | +25.87% |

The gap: +25.87 − ( +29.77 ) = −3.90 points . On $10,000 that is about $390 less than the daily promise, compounded, would have given. ETFIQ's Promise check, on its own window to Nov 10, 2026 : Partly , −3.9 pts .

The yardstick is 2x each day, compounded, so bitcoin's swings are already in it and the gap is the fund's own ( Leveraged decay in numbers ).

Risk 2: a discount spike (JEDI, Nov 9, 2026 ). JEDI, a drone and defense theme fund:

- Usual range: within ± 0.40% of NAV on 95% of its 27 trading days.

- Nov 9, 2026 close: 0.14% above NAV.

- Days more than 1% from NAV: 1 of 27 .

Selling $10,000 of NAV's worth at that close: $10,000 × (1 − 0.0014 ) = $9,986 , or $14 less than the basket's value. On 95% of its days the gap was $40 or less.

Risk 3: a closure (VERS). ProShares' Metaverse ETF:

- Sep 28, 2026: the issuer's filing announced the liquidation.

- Oct 12: last trading day, 14 days later.

- Oct 27: the exchange removed the listing.

Its 1-year total return to Oct 12 was +19.2% . A fund can close after a good year. Issuers also close funds whose assets are too small to cover running costs. ETFIQ keeps a closed fund's page, marked "Closed on", out of rankings.

### The common mistake

"If the market moves my way, the fund will too." BITX's market rose , and the fund still kept about $390 less per $10,000 than its own promise. JEDI's basket was worth $14 more than its sale price that day. VERS gave its holders 14 days. Check the wrapper as well as the market.

### Check your understanding

Pick an answer to see why. Two of three right passes the lesson.

1. A 2x fund's daily multiple, compounded, came to +20% over 3 months, and the fund returned +17%. What is its tracking gap? A +3 points B −3 points C −37 points D Zero, because the market rose Answer: B. −3 points. fund minus compounded promise: 17 − 20 = −3. Not D: the gap is measured against the promise, whatever the market did. 2. A fund usually trades within ±0.3% of NAV. Today it closes 2% below NAV. What does selling $20,000 of NAV's worth at that close give you? A $20,000 B $19,940 C $19,600 D $19,000 Answer: C. $19,600. $20,000 × (1 − 0.02) = $19,600. Not B: $19,940 uses the usual 0.3% range, not today's 2%. 3. A fund returned +19% last year and has very low assets. What does the return tell you about its closure risk? A It can't close after a good year B Closure risk only applies to leveraged funds C It will close within a month D Little; a fund can close after a good year, for reasons such as low assets Answer: D. Little; a fund can close after a good year, for reasons such as low assets. VERS closed after a +19.2% year. Not A: an issuer also weighs the cost of running a small fund, not only its last return.

### Takeaways

- Read the Promise check: a gap against the fund's own promise is the fund's doing.

- Check today's premium against the fund's usual range before a large sale.

- Closures can follow good years, so know the date you'd have to act by.

### Do it on ETFIQ

Run the Promise check on your fund Your fund

### Where to next

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, Fund risks: tracking misses, premium spikes, closures, data as of Nov 10, 2026. https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/