{"url":"https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/","section":"academy","title":"Fund risks | ETFIQ","description":"Learn three risks that come from the fund itself, not the market: tracking misses, premium spikes and closures, with real BITX, JEDI and VERS data.","as_of":"Nov 10, 2026","structured_data":[{"@type":"LearningResource","@id":"https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/#lesson","name":"Fund risks: tracking misses, premium spikes, closures","description":"Over the 3 months to Nov 10, 2026, BITX returned 25.9% against 29.8% for 2 times bitcoin's daily moves, a 3.9-point miss.","url":"https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/","learningResourceType":"Lesson","teaches":"Three risks in one fund: a tracking miss, a premium spike and a closure, each read from its own dated data","educationalLevel":"Advanced","timeRequired":"PT7M","inLanguage":"en","isAccessibleForFree":true,"isPartOf":{"@type":"Course","@id":"https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/#course","name":"Risk and Execution","url":"https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/"},"position":4,"dateModified":"2026-11-10","author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"ETFIQ Research","url":"https://etfiq.com"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"ETFIQ Research","url":"https://etfiq.com"}},{"@type":"FAQPage","@id":"https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/#check","mainEntity":[{"@type":"Question","name":"A 2x fund's daily multiple, compounded, came to +20% over 3 months, and the fund returned +17%. What is its tracking gap?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"\u22123 points. fund minus compounded promise: 17 \u2212 20 = \u22123."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"A fund usually trades within \u00b10.3% of NAV. Today it closes 2% below NAV. What does selling $20,000 of NAV's worth at that close give you?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"$19,600. $20,000 \u00d7 (1 \u2212 0.02) = $19,600."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"A fund returned +19% last year and has very low assets. What does the return tell you about its closure risk?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Little; a fund can close after a good year, for reasons such as low assets. VERS closed after a +19.2% year."}}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"ETFIQ","item":"https://etfiq.com/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Academy","item":"https://etfiq.com/academy/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Risk and Execution","item":"https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":4,"name":"Fund risks","item":"https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/"}]},{"@type":"WebPage","name":"Fund risks","description":"Learn three risks that come from the fund itself, not the market: tracking misses, premium spikes and closures, with real BITX, JEDI and VERS data.","url":"https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/","dateModified":"2026-11-10","isPartOf":{"@type":"WebSite","name":"ETFIQ","url":"https://etfiq.com"},"speakable":{"@type":"SpeakableSpecification","cssSelector":[".lede"]},"publisher":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org"}}],"characters":5512,"truncated":false,"content":"ETFIQ / Academy / Risk and Execution / Fund risks \n \n Fund risks: tracking misses, premium spikes, closures\n Data as of Nov 10, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.\n Over the 3 months to Nov 10, 2026 , BITX returned 25.9% against 29.8% for 2 times bitcoin's daily moves, a 3.9 -point miss .\n Risk and Execution \u00b7 Lesson 4 of 4 1 2 3 4 \n Slide the amount to see the tracking gap in dollars. Your order (hypothetical) $10,000 On $10,000: 2x each day, compounded $2,977, BITX $2,587. Hypothetical amounts. \n The question\n I checked the market risk. What can go wrong with the fund itself?\n The idea\n Some risks come from the wrapper, not what it holds: Tracking miss. The fund doesn't deliver what it promises: an index, or a multiple of daily moves. ETFIQ's Promise check marks each fund Delivered , Partly or Missed , with its gap in points.\n Premium or discount spike. On a given day the price can sit well away from NAV (the basket's worth divided by the number of shares; see Premium and discount ). Sell on a discount day and you get less than the basket is worth.\n Closure. The issuer can close the fund. Holders get a date to sell by, or are paid out in cash. You don't choose the date.\n \n Each is measured over its own dates.\n Worked example\n Risk 1: a tracking miss (BITX, 3 months, Aug 11, 2026 to Nov 10, 2026 ). BITX aims for 2 times bitcoin's daily move.\n Return \n Bitcoin +16.10% \n 2x each day, compounded +29.77% \n BITX +25.87% \n The gap: +25.87 \u2212 ( +29.77 ) = \u22123.90 points . On $10,000 that is about $390 less than the daily promise, compounded, would have given. ETFIQ's Promise check, on its own window to Nov 10, 2026 : Partly , \u22123.9 pts .\n The yardstick is 2x each day, compounded, so bitcoin's swings are already in it and the gap is the fund's own ( Leveraged decay in numbers ).\n Risk 2: a discount spike (JEDI, Nov 9, 2026 ). JEDI, a drone and defense theme fund:\n Usual range: within \u00b1 0.40% of NAV on 95% of its 27 trading days.\n Nov 9, 2026 close: 0.14% above NAV.\n Days more than 1% from NAV: 1 of 27 .\n Selling $10,000 of NAV's worth at that close: $10,000 \u00d7 (1 \u2212 0.0014 ) = $9,986 , or $14 less than the basket's value. On 95% of its days the gap was $40 or less.\n Risk 3: a closure (VERS). ProShares' Metaverse ETF:\n Sep 28, 2026: the issuer's filing announced the liquidation.\n Oct 12: last trading day, 14 days later.\n Oct 27: the exchange removed the listing.\n Its 1-year total return to Oct 12 was +19.2% . A fund can close after a good year. Issuers also close funds whose assets are too small to cover running costs. ETFIQ keeps a closed fund's page, marked \"Closed on\", out of rankings.\n The common mistake\n \"If the market moves my way, the fund will too.\" BITX's market rose , and the fund still kept about $390 less per $10,000 than its own promise. JEDI's basket was worth $14 more than its sale price that day. VERS gave its holders 14 days. Check the wrapper as well as the market. \n Check your understanding\n Pick an answer to see why. Two of three right passes the lesson.\n 1. A 2x fund's daily multiple, compounded, came to +20% over 3 months, and the fund returned +17%. What is its tracking gap? A +3 points B \u22123 points C \u221237 points D Zero, because the market rose Answer: B. \u22123 points. fund minus compounded promise: 17 \u2212 20 = \u22123. Not D: the gap is measured against the promise, whatever the market did. 2. A fund usually trades within \u00b10.3% of NAV. Today it closes 2% below NAV. What does selling $20,000 of NAV's worth at that close give you? A $20,000 B $19,940 C $19,600 D $19,000 Answer: C. $19,600. $20,000 \u00d7 (1 \u2212 0.02) = $19,600. Not B: $19,940 uses the usual 0.3% range, not today's 2%. 3. A fund returned +19% last year and has very low assets. What does the return tell you about its closure risk? A It can't close after a good year B Closure risk only applies to leveraged funds C It will close within a month D Little; a fund can close after a good year, for reasons such as low assets Answer: D. Little; a fund can close after a good year, for reasons such as low assets. VERS closed after a +19.2% year. Not A: an issuer also weighs the cost of running a small fund, not only its last return. \n Takeaways\n Read the Promise check: a gap against the fund's own promise is the fund's doing. \n Check today's premium against the fund's usual range before a large sale. \n Closures can follow good years, so know the date you'd have to act by. \n Do it on ETFIQ\n Run the Promise check on your fund Your fund \n Where to next\n Previous lesson: Position sizing: start from the worst fall Risk and Execution: all lessons The explainer behind this lesson ETFIQ Academy How ETFIQ computes these numbers \n Cite this page. ETFIQ, Fund risks: tracking misses, premium spikes, closures, data as of Nov 10, 2026. https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/ Free to use with attribution for data ETFIQ computes; issuer data stays under its owner's terms. The underlying files are at Open data .\n Other forms Plain ETFIQ, Fund risks: tracking misses, premium spikes, closures, data as of Nov 10, 2026. https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/ APA ETFIQ. (Nov 10, 2026). Fund risks: tracking misses, premium spikes, closures. Retrieved from https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/ Markdown [Fund risks: tracking misses, premium spikes, closures (ETFIQ, Nov 10, 2026)](https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/)","source":"ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.","publisher":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org","name":"ETFIQ","url":"https://etfiq.com"},"license":"https://etfiq.com/license/","license_text":"Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.","citation":"ETFIQ, Fund risks: tracking misses, premium spikes, closures, data as of Nov 10, 2026. https://etfiq.com/academy/risk-and-execution/fund-risks-closure-tracking-premiums/"}