# Risk in numbers > Learn to read three risk numbers on an ETF scorecard: volatility, worst fall and downside capture, using 12 years of real ARKK and VOO data. Data as of Nov 10, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night. ## Risk in numbers: volatility, worst fall, downside capture Data as of Nov 10, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night. From Nov 7, 2014 to Nov 6, 2026 , ARKK returned +314.7% to VOO's +344.4% , but swung 37.4% a year against 16.5% . Allocation and Risk · Lesson 1 of 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Set an amount. See what is left of it after each fund's worst fall, ARKK against VOO. Amount (hypothetical) $10,000 On $10,000: ARKK left after a fall of 80.1% $1,989, VOO left after a fall of 31.8% $6,822. Hypothetical amount. Worst falls are real marks, Nov 7, 2014 to Nov 6, 2026, 626 weekly returns. ### The question Two funds ended up in about the same place. Were they equally risky? And which numbers tell me? ### The idea - "Risk" is not one thing. A scorecard splits it into three questions, and each needs its own number: - How bumpy is the ride? That is volatility : how widely weekly returns swing around their average, stated as a yearly number. - How bad did it get? That is the worst fall , or max drawdown : the biggest drop from a high to a later low ( Beginner lesson 1 ). - What happens when the market drops? That is downside capture : in the weeks the benchmark fell, how much of that fall the fund took, on average. 100% means it fell just as much; above 100% means more. - Return tells you where you ended. Risk tells you what you sat through on the way. ### Worked example ARKK is ARK's actively managed innovation fund. VOO tracks the S&P 500. ETFIQ's scorecard measures both over the same 626 weeks, Nov 7, 2014 to Nov 6, 2026 , and measures ARKK against VOO. (ARKK is an example, not a pick.) Start with return. On $10,000 ( +314.7% as a decimal is 3.1468 ): - ARKK: $10,000 × (1 + 3.1468 ) = $41,468 - VOO: $10,000 × (1 + 3.4445 ) = $44,445 Close. The risk numbers are not. 1. Volatility: 37.4% against 16.5% . 37.4 ÷ 16.5 = 2.27 . ARKK's typical swing was more than twice as wide. Volatility says how far a fund moves, not which way. 2. Worst fall: −80.1% against −31.8% . Imagine $10,000 invested at each fund's high point: - ARKK, Feb 12, 2021 to Dec 23, 2022 : $10,000 × (1 − 0.8011 ) = $1,989 - VOO, Feb 14, 2020 to Mar 20, 2020 : $10,000 × (1 − 0.3178 ) = $6,822 Now the step that matters. To get back to $10,000: - ARKK needs $10,000 ÷ $1,989 = 5.03 times its money, a gain of +403% - VOO needs $10,000 ÷ $6,822 = 1.47 times, a gain of +47% A fall and the gain that repairs it are not the same size. The deeper the fall, the faster the repair grows. On Nov 10, 2026 , ARKK was still 50.1% below its Feb 2021 high. 3. Downside capture: 140.1% . In the 260 weeks VOO fell, ARKK fell 1.4 times as much on average. If VOO dropped 2% in a week, ARKK typically dropped about 2 × 1.4007 = 2.8 . Its upside capture was 236.0% : in up weeks it rose about 2.4 times as much. Both come from one habit: ARKK moved more than the market both ways. ### The common mistake "Similar returns mean similar risk." ARKK and VOO ended about $3,000 apart on $10,000. But an ARKK holder sat through a fall to $1,989 . Many people sell in a fall like that and miss the long-run return. A second mistake is trusting one risk number. A fund can be calm most weeks and still crash once. Read all three. ### Check your understanding Pick an answer to see why. Two of three right passes the lesson. 1. A fund falls 50% from its high. What gain does it need to get back? A 50% B 75% C 100% D 150% Answer: C. 100%. $10,000 falls to $5,000, and $5,000 must double to reach $10,000 again. Not A: a 50% gain on $5,000 only gets you to $7,500. 2. A fund's downside capture against its benchmark is 60%. The benchmark falls 5% in a week. Roughly what did the fund do, on average, in weeks like that? A Rose 3% B Fell 8% C Fell 5% D Fell 3% Answer: D. Fell 3%. 5% × 60% = 3%. Below 100% means it took less of the fall. Not A: capture under 100% still means falling, just by less. 3. Fund X has volatility of 12% and a worst fall of −45%. Fund Y has volatility of 18% and a worst fall of −30%. What is the best reading? A X is usually calmer, but had a deeper crash B X is less risky in every way C Y is less risky in every way D The numbers must be wrong Answer: A. X is usually calmer, but had a deeper crash. Volatility measures the usual swing; the worst fall measures the single worst stretch. They can point different ways. Not B: a lower volatility says nothing about how deep one bad fall went. ### Takeaways - Read volatility, worst fall and downside capture together; each answers a different question. - Turn any worst fall into the gain needed to recover: −50% needs +100%, −80% needs +400%. - Ask what a holder sat through to earn any return. ### Do it on ETFIQ Read the scorecard for a fund you own Your fund ### Where to next --- Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices. Cite: ETFIQ, Risk in numbers: volatility, worst fall, downside capture, data as of Nov 10, 2026. https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/ Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms. HTML: https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/