{"url":"https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/","section":"academy","title":"Risk in numbers | ETFIQ","description":"Learn to read three risk numbers on an ETF scorecard: volatility, worst fall and downside capture, using 12 years of real ARKK and VOO data.","as_of":"Nov 10, 2026","structured_data":[{"@type":"LearningResource","@id":"https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/#lesson","name":"Risk in numbers: volatility, worst fall, downside capture","description":"From Nov 7, 2014 to Nov 6, 2026, ARKK returned +314.7% to VOO's +344.4%, but swung 37.4% a year against 16.5%.","url":"https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/","learningResourceType":"Lesson","teaches":"Volatility, worst fall and downside capture, and why a fall needs a bigger gain to repair","educationalLevel":"Intermediate","timeRequired":"PT7M","inLanguage":"en","isAccessibleForFree":true,"isPartOf":{"@type":"Course","@id":"https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/#course","name":"Allocation and Risk","url":"https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/"},"position":1,"dateModified":"2026-11-10","author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"ETFIQ Research","url":"https://etfiq.com"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"ETFIQ Research","url":"https://etfiq.com"}},{"@type":"FAQPage","@id":"https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/#check","mainEntity":[{"@type":"Question","name":"A fund falls 50% from its high. What gain does it need to get back?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"100%. $10,000 falls to $5,000, and $5,000 must double to reach $10,000 again."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"A fund's downside capture against its benchmark is 60%. The benchmark falls 5% in a week. Roughly what did the fund do, on average, in weeks like that?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Fell 3%. 5% \u00d7 60% = 3%. Below 100% means it took less of the fall."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Fund X has volatility of 12% and a worst fall of \u221245%. Fund Y has volatility of 18% and a worst fall of \u221230%. What is the best reading?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"X is usually calmer, but had a deeper crash. Volatility measures the usual swing; the worst fall measures the single worst stretch. They can point different ways."}}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"ETFIQ","item":"https://etfiq.com/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Academy","item":"https://etfiq.com/academy/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Allocation and Risk","item":"https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":4,"name":"Risk in numbers","item":"https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/"}]},{"@type":"WebPage","name":"Risk in numbers","description":"Learn to read three risk numbers on an ETF scorecard: volatility, worst fall and downside capture, using 12 years of real ARKK and VOO data.","url":"https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/","dateModified":"2026-11-10","isPartOf":{"@type":"WebSite","name":"ETFIQ","url":"https://etfiq.com"},"speakable":{"@type":"SpeakableSpecification","cssSelector":[".lede"]},"publisher":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org"}}],"characters":5745,"truncated":false,"content":"ETFIQ / Academy / Allocation and Risk / Risk in numbers \n \n Risk in numbers: volatility, worst fall, downside capture\n Data as of Nov 10, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.\n From Nov 7, 2014 to Nov 6, 2026 , ARKK returned +314.7% to VOO's +344.4% , but swung 37.4% a year against 16.5% .\n Allocation and Risk \u00b7 Lesson 1 of 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 \n Set an amount. See what is left of it after each fund's worst fall, ARKK against VOO. Amount (hypothetical) $10,000 On $10,000: ARKK left after a fall of 80.1% $1,989, VOO left after a fall of 31.8% $6,822. Hypothetical amount. Worst falls are real marks, Nov 7, 2014 to Nov 6, 2026, 626 weekly returns. \n The question\n Two funds ended up in about the same place. Were they equally risky? And which numbers tell me?\n The idea\n \"Risk\" is not one thing. A scorecard splits it into three questions, and each needs its own number: How bumpy is the ride? That is volatility : how widely weekly returns swing around their average, stated as a yearly number.\n How bad did it get? That is the worst fall , or max drawdown : the biggest drop from a high to a later low ( Beginner lesson 1 ).\n What happens when the market drops? That is downside capture : in the weeks the benchmark fell, how much of that fall the fund took, on average. 100% means it fell just as much; above 100% means more.\n \n Return tells you where you ended. Risk tells you what you sat through on the way. \n Worked example\n ARKK is ARK's actively managed innovation fund. VOO tracks the S&P 500. ETFIQ's scorecard measures both over the same 626 weeks, Nov 7, 2014 to Nov 6, 2026 , and measures ARKK against VOO. (ARKK is an example, not a pick.)\n Start with return. On $10,000 ( +314.7% as a decimal is 3.1468 ):\n ARKK: $10,000 \u00d7 (1 + 3.1468 ) = $41,468 \n VOO: $10,000 \u00d7 (1 + 3.4445 ) = $44,445 \n Close. The risk numbers are not.\n 1. Volatility: 37.4% against 16.5% . 37.4 \u00f7 16.5 = 2.27 . ARKK's typical swing was more than twice as wide. Volatility says how far a fund moves, not which way.\n 2. Worst fall: \u221280.1% against \u221231.8% . Imagine $10,000 invested at each fund's high point:\n ARKK, Feb 12, 2021 to Dec 23, 2022 : $10,000 \u00d7 (1 \u2212 0.8011 ) = $1,989 \n VOO, Feb 14, 2020 to Mar 20, 2020 : $10,000 \u00d7 (1 \u2212 0.3178 ) = $6,822 \n Now the step that matters. To get back to $10,000:\n ARKK needs $10,000 \u00f7 $1,989 = 5.03 times its money, a gain of +403% \n VOO needs $10,000 \u00f7 $6,822 = 1.47 times, a gain of +47% \n A fall and the gain that repairs it are not the same size. The deeper the fall, the faster the repair grows. On Nov 10, 2026 , ARKK was still 50.1% below its Feb 2021 high.\n 3. Downside capture: 140.1% . In the 260 weeks VOO fell, ARKK fell 1.4 times as much on average. If VOO dropped 2% in a week, ARKK typically dropped about 2 \u00d7 1.4007 = 2.8 .\n Its upside capture was 236.0% : in up weeks it rose about 2.4 times as much. Both come from one habit: ARKK moved more than the market both ways.\n The common mistake\n \"Similar returns mean similar risk.\" ARKK and VOO ended about $3,000 apart on $10,000. But an ARKK holder sat through a fall to $1,989 . Many people sell in a fall like that and miss the long-run return.\n A second mistake is trusting one risk number. A fund can be calm most weeks and still crash once. Read all three.\n Check your understanding\n Pick an answer to see why. Two of three right passes the lesson.\n 1. A fund falls 50% from its high. What gain does it need to get back? A 50% B 75% C 100% D 150% Answer: C. 100%. $10,000 falls to $5,000, and $5,000 must double to reach $10,000 again. Not A: a 50% gain on $5,000 only gets you to $7,500. 2. A fund's downside capture against its benchmark is 60%. The benchmark falls 5% in a week. Roughly what did the fund do, on average, in weeks like that? A Rose 3% B Fell 8% C Fell 5% D Fell 3% Answer: D. Fell 3%. 5% \u00d7 60% = 3%. Below 100% means it took less of the fall. Not A: capture under 100% still means falling, just by less. 3. Fund X has volatility of 12% and a worst fall of \u221245%. Fund Y has volatility of 18% and a worst fall of \u221230%. What is the best reading? A X is usually calmer, but had a deeper crash B X is less risky in every way C Y is less risky in every way D The numbers must be wrong Answer: A. X is usually calmer, but had a deeper crash. Volatility measures the usual swing; the worst fall measures the single worst stretch. They can point different ways. Not B: a lower volatility says nothing about how deep one bad fall went. \n Takeaways\n Read volatility, worst fall and downside capture together; each answers a different question. \n Turn any worst fall into the gain needed to recover: \u221250% needs +100%, \u221280% needs +400%. \n Ask what a holder sat through to earn any return. \n Do it on ETFIQ\n Read the scorecard for a fund you own Your fund \n Where to next\n Next lesson: Risk-adjusted return: Sharpe, Sortino and Calmar Allocation and Risk: all lessons The explainer behind this lesson ETFIQ Academy How ETFIQ computes these numbers \n Cite this page. ETFIQ, Risk in numbers: volatility, worst fall, downside capture, data as of Nov 10, 2026. https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/ Free to use with attribution for data ETFIQ computes; issuer data stays under its owner's terms. The underlying files are at Open data .\n Other forms Plain ETFIQ, Risk in numbers: volatility, worst fall, downside capture, data as of Nov 10, 2026. https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/ APA ETFIQ. (Nov 10, 2026). Risk in numbers: volatility, worst fall, downside capture. Retrieved from https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/ Markdown [Risk in numbers: volatility, worst fall, downside capture (ETFIQ, Nov 10, 2026)](https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/)","source":"ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.","publisher":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org","name":"ETFIQ","url":"https://etfiq.com"},"license":"https://etfiq.com/license/","license_text":"Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.","citation":"ETFIQ, Risk in numbers: volatility, worst fall, downside capture, data as of Nov 10, 2026. https://etfiq.com/academy/allocation-and-risk/risk-in-numbers/"}